The Munich Security Conference organisers stated in their pre-summit report that the US is no longer seen as “an anchor of stability, but rather a risk to be hedged against” as a result of Donald Trump’s projected “land grabs.”
This year’s conference will be set against the backdrop of the study, which focusses on the transition from a US-led, unipolar post-cold war era to a multipolar world where no single ideological outlook dominates.
The US president has stated that Canada may become the 51st US state and that the US should acquire territory in Greenland and Panama since taking office. Although it is unclear which other nations might be ready and able to supply urgently needed global public goods, Washington’s signals are becoming more and more clear that the US no longer want to be the defender of the liberal international order.
The authors of the report argue that the consequences of the US leaving a position of global leadership go beyond matters of war and peace: “It is difficult to imagine the international community providing global public goods like freedom of navigation or tackling even some of the many grave threats confronting humanity without global leadership of the kind provided by the United States for the past several decades.”
The authors also claim that the “multipolarization” tendency will thwart the US president’s attempt to establish a new format for the US primary. According to survey data included in their analysis, nations like Brazil, India, South Africa, and China are more likely to embrace the trend as a positive factor.
The gathering, which begins on Friday, is regarded as the most significant platform for conversations between decision-makers in international security policy. It will feature the first encounters between European political and military leaders with a Trump delegation since Trump’s inauguration, headed by US Vice President JD Vance.
Alongside Vance will be US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, US Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg, and US Defence Secretary Peter Hegseth. They will probably be questioned about their suggested conditions for a truce between Russia and Ukraine as well as a potential future leadership role for the US. Reports that Kellogg intends to present a finished peace plan to the meeting have been refuted.
Before beginning any talks, European leaders will put pressure on Vance to do more to weaken Vladimir Putin. They will also enquire as to whether the US, either individually or through NATO, is willing to offer much-needed support to a potential European-led stabilisation force within Ukraine following a truce.
Trump has threatened to impose unidentified “reciprocal tariffs” on the EU at the same time as the conference.
According to the MSC assessment, “the future order may be much messier” in a world where “a greater number of states are vying for influence.”
It states: “It’s possible that we live in a world where several orders coexist or compete with one another, and where there aren’t many nearly universal laws, values, or cooperative patterns left.” The liberal order might survive in such a “multi-order” or “multiplex” society. However, it will progressively be limited to the west, or what remains of it.
The authors also caution that, as stated in the new security treaties Moscow presented to the US and NATO in late 2021, Russia is pursuing a Russian-led Eurasian order and is not only interested in eliminating Ukraine as a military danger.
They subtly implore Trump to acknowledge the potential and broader consequences of a Putin loss. They argue, “It is uncertain if Russia can continue its imperialist endeavours given economic uncertainty, imperial overstretch, and a highly attritional war.” The international community will have to determine whether to allow Russia to do this or to put pressure on it to adhere to the rules-based international order.
The US will probably step up its efforts to restrain China, but Beijing may gain from Washington’s alienation of traditional allies or the US’s retreat from international obligations. For example, the poll indicates that in all G7 nations, the perceived risk posed by Russia has decreased more than the risk posed by the United States. With the exception of the UK and Germany, every country surveyed views the environment—including extreme weather events—as posing a bigger risk.
The authors state that it “is rather unlikely, given that it is far from clear whether the major ordering poles can agree on at least some rules, principles, and structures of cooperation to manage inter-order relations,” that the new distinct orders will coexist peacefully.
During his testimony before the Senate foreign relations committee last month, Rubio appeared to welcome the idea of a more multipolar world. “The world doesn’t normally have a unipolar power,” he stated. It was an exception. This resulted from the conclusion of the Cold War, but eventually you would reach a point where you had multiple great powers in different parts of the world and a multipolar world. In addition to dealing with rogue governments like Iran and North Korea, we currently have to contend with China and, to a lesser extent, Russia.
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