Muscat, Oman – A third round of high-stakes negotiations between Iran and the United States over a potential revival of the nuclear deal has begun in Oman, with both sides signaling cautious optimism but acknowledging significant hurdles remain.
Talks Resume in “Serious Atmosphere”
Iranian state television confirmed the talks commenced midday in Muscat, showing footage of its delegation arriving for discussions. According to Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, the negotiations are proceeding in a “serious atmosphere,” though U.S. officials have yet to publicly comment.
The latest round follows two previous meetings described as “positive” by both sides, with discussions now shifting toward technical details. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that the expert-level talks are “difficult, complicated, and serious,” underscoring the challenges ahead.
Key Sticking Points: Sanctions Relief vs. Nuclear & Missile Programs
The primary focus remains on reaching an agreement where Iran scales back its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of U.S.-led economic sanctions, which have crippled Iran’s economy. However, major obstacles persist:
- Sanctions Relief – Tehran insists that any deal must include the full removal of sanctions, particularly those targeting its oil and banking sectors.
- Nuclear Program Limits – Washington demands verifiable restrictions on Iran’s uranium enrichment, which has reached near-weapons-grade levels.
- Missile Program – Reports suggest Iran’s ballistic missile development remains a contentious issue, with Tehran refusing to negotiate on what it calls its “defensive capabilities.”
Why Iran Wants a Deal—And Why It’s Still Risky
DW’s Persian Service reporter Nilofar Galami noted that while Iran’s leadership seeks an agreement, its position is more vulnerable than in past negotiations.
- Domestic & Regional Pressures – The regime faces mounting crises, including economic collapse, widespread protests, and weakened proxy forces in the Middle East.
- Shadow of War – With Israel and the U.S. maintaining military threats, a deal could offer Iran temporary relief from further escalation.
- Regime Survival vs. Public Distrust – Analysts warn that even if sanctions are lifted, the Islamic Republic may divert resources to regional proxies rather than improving living conditions for ordinary Iranians.
Iranian Public Skepticism: “Will This Deal Change Anything?”
Many Iranians remain deeply skeptical, recalling the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which failed to deliver lasting economic improvements. Instead, the government funneled funds into regional militias and internal repression.
- Economic Desperation – Some hope for minor relief from inflation and unemployment, but few expect transformative change.
- Political Distrust – A significant portion of the population views any deal as a capitulation after years of confrontation with the West. “Why should we pay the price for the regime’s failed policies?” asked one Tehran resident in a social media post.
What’s Next?
With both sides under pressure—Washington seeking to avoid another Middle East crisis and Tehran desperate for sanctions relief—the Oman talks could determine whether a temporary understanding or a full revival of the nuclear deal is possible.
However, as past negotiations have shown, even if an agreement is reached, the deeper conflict between Iran and the West—over regional influence, missile development, and human rights—is unlikely to fade.
— Reporting with inputs from DW, Reuters, and Iranian state media.