Rome, Italy – On the sidelines of Pope Francis’s funeral, U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held a surprise meeting—their first since a tense 2019 Oval Office encounter—raising speculation about potential shifts in the Ukraine war strategy. While U.S. officials called the talks “very productive,” details remain scarce, leaving analysts to dissect whether a path to peace is emerging or if geopolitical posturing dominated the discussion.
A High-Stakes Meeting in the Shadow of the Vatican
The encounter, orchestrated ahead of the pontiff’s funeral, brought together two leaders whose relationship has been fraught since Trump’s 2019 impeachment over withheld military aid to Ukraine. This time, the context was starkly different:
- Zelensky’s Reported Concessions: Ukrainian media leaks suggest Zelensky may have softened demands, including delaying NATO membership aspirations and downplaying immediate territorial reconquest—a move seen as aligning with Trump’s push for a negotiated settlement.
- Trump’s Leverage: With U.S. elections looming, Trump has repeatedly claimed he could “end the war in 24 hours,” likely pressuring Kyiv to compromise. His administration has yet to clarify if military aid (currently stalled in Congress) was discussed.
Territorial Red Lines and Putin’s Absence
DW’s Russia analyst Konstantin Eggert noted that while Zelensky might adjust rhetoric, Ukraine’s constitution forbids ceding territory—a nonstarter for any peace deal. Meanwhile, Russia’s delegation, led by low-profile Culture Minister Olga Lyubimova, signaled Moscow’s disinterest in direct talks.
- Putin’s Unyielding Demands: The Kremlin insists on Ukraine’s surrender, including regime change and recognition of annexed territories—terms Kyiv and the West reject.
- “Watered-Down” Proposals?: Eggert speculated Zelensky’s pivot could aim to secure continued U.S. support, but warned: “No deal will give Putin a puppet Ukraine.”
Global Reactions and What’s Next
The meeting’s timing—amid a grinding war and Trump’s reelection campaign—hints at broader calculations:
- European Allies fear Trump might push Ukraine into a disadvantageous deal to claim a foreign policy win.
- Ukrainian Public remains wary; polls show 80% oppose territorial concessions, and memories of Trump’s 2019 pressure linger.
- Russia’s Next Move: With Ukraine’s counteroffensive stalled and Western aid delayed, Putin may bet on attrition rather than diplomacy.
Peace or Posturing?
While the Rome talks avoided collapse, they underscored the war’s intractable core: Ukraine won’t surrender, Russia won’t retreat, and the U.S. election looms as a wildcard. As Eggert concluded, “Without Putin at the table, any deal is just theater.